Preview: All-Ireland SFC semi-final – Armagh v Kerry:
Saturday 13 July
All-Ireland SFC semi-final
Armagh v Kerry in Croke Park at 5.30pm – RTE/BBC
These two teams haven’t played one another in the championship since 2006 which adds to the intrigue around the tie.
The most reference point is the 2023 Allianz Football League meeting which Kerry won by 0-12 to 0-11.
That was an extremely cagey match with both teams largely playing it safe, and so too was their meeting in the 2022 League when Kerry also came out narrowly on top. Can we expect something similar here?
If Armagh are to win, they might be best advised to throw caution to the wind. This seasoned Kerry team tends to be comfortable when the opposition take a methodical, cautious first approach, but have looked vulnerable when attacked more directly.
Niall Grimley, Ben Crealey, and Rian O’Neill have the size and athleticism to potentially dominate the middle third and if Armagh do gain a platform here and use it to angle in direct deliveries to the likes of Rory Grugan and Conor Turbitt, you could potentially see them doing some damage.
But if Armagh go down they go down the same route that Derry did by putting a premium on caution above adventure, they’ll likely suffer the same fate their fellow Ulster side did.
The statistics favour Kerry coming into this match. They’ve scored an average of 22 points per championship match this year and conceded an average of 11.
Armagh (not including the Ulster Final extra-time) have scored an average of 16 points and conceded an average of 14.
It might be unwise to read too much into those stats though, as Armagh came up against tougher opposition both in their provincial championship and All-Ireland SFC round-robin group than Kerry did.
Indeed, you could argue that Kieran McGeeney’s team have been more fire-tested this year than Kerry, and so when the heat is turned up to full blast in Croke Park on Saturday might be better able to cope.
Any team hoping to best Kerry know that they must somehow find a way to limit the influence of David Clifford, and this job is likely to fall to Barry McCambridge who certainly looked up to it when keeping the Fossa man scoreless from play in that league meeting last year.
There’s every chance this game will really come down to the wire and will be decided which team has the stronger bench and the steelier mental strength.
It’s hard to pick between the two teams in terms of the former because they both have good impact players with the likes of Stefan Campbell, Aidan Nugent, Jarly Óg Burns, and Ross McQuillan ready to be sprung by Armagh and Killian Spillane, Stephen O’Brien, Adrian Spillane, and Graham O’Sullivan waiting in the wings for Kerry.
But if it’s a game of very fine margins that needs to be won in the dying minutes you’d back Kerry’s greater experience of big days like this ahead of an Armagh side that may be haunted by a track-record of coming up just short in such contests.
ARMAGH: Blaine Hughes; Paddy Burns, Aaron McKay, Peter McGrane; Barry McCambridge, Tiernan Kelly, Aidan Forker; Niall Grimley, Ben Crealey; Oisin Conaty, Rian O’Neill, Joe McElroy; Rory Grugan, Andrew Murnin, Conor Turbitt. Subs: Ethan Rafferty, Connaire Mackin, Jason Duffy, Greg McCabe, Aidan Nugent, Oisin O’Neill, Stefan Campbell, Shane McPartlan, Ross McQuillan, Jarly Óg Burns, Darragh McMullan
KERRY: Shane Ryan; Paul Murphy, Jason Foley, Tom O’Sullivan; Brian Ó Beaglaíoch, Tadhg Morley, Gavin White; Diarmuid O’Connor, Joe O’Connor; Tony Brosnan, Paudie Clifford, Dara Moynihan; David Clifford, Sean O’Shea, Paul Geaney. Subs: Shane Murphy, Dylan Casey, Cillian Burke, Mike Breen, Sean O’Brien, Adrian Spillane, Barry Dan O’Sullivan, Killian Spillane, Stephen O’Brien, Dylan Geaney, Graham O’Sullivan.